Here's Why Hiring Is Slowing In The U.S.

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Good morning! Here is the latest in trending:

On tour: A slew of trade deals are on tap across Asia as President Trump visits the region. Soybean purchases from China are set to resume, while copper futures are surging toward record highs.

Renewed mandate: Argentina stocks and U.S.-listed ETFs are up sharply as Javier Milei’s party wins the country’s midterm elections in a landslide.

Next Chair? Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed the names of five finalists to succeed the Fed’s Jerome Powell, with a decision expected by the end of the year.

While economic data may be hard to come by these days due to the government shutdown, the pace of hiring seems to be slowing in the U.S. According to the most recent figures available, there were only 22K and 73K jobs added nationwide in August and July, which is below the 75K thought to keep the economy stable. That breakeven rate is also down from levels seen in recent years, while the unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.3%.

Bigger picture: The U.S. economy is chugging along, but job seekers are having a more difficult time getting hired. For corporations, it’s been hard to navigate abrupt policy shifts, ranging from tariffs to immigration, while there have also been severe cutbacks to the federal workforce. Many Baby Boomers who are retiring are also not getting replaced, while businesses are extremely eager to see a return on their AI investment, especially in areas like automated tasks and boosting productivity.

Given all these factors, many firms have been rolling out ultralean staffing models. Target (TGT) last week slashed its corporate workforce in a move aimed at “moving faster and [to] simplify how we work,” while Walmart (WMT), the nation’s biggest private employer, warned that AI will reshape every job. It’s not only significant downsizing, but hiring as a whole. Earnings season has already revealed that headcount continues to be constrained, while there appears to be a notable uptick in #OpenToWork profiles marked on LinkedIn.

SA commentary: “The [Chicago Fed’s] hiring rate fell to 45.2%, which is its lowest level since 2009, and the layoff rate held constant at 2.1%, which was relatively reassuring and indicates that companies are not firing aggressively,” Investing Group Leader Samuel Smith writes in The Hidden Weakness In The Jobs Market Could Cause A Major Market Disruption. “However, the falling hiring rate means that companies are allowing natural attrition to take hold by reducing the new employees they are bringing in, even if they are not removing existing ones quite as rapidly.”

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Today’s Markets

In Asia, Japan +2.5%. Hong Kong +1.1%. China +1.2%. India +0.7%.
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Ten-year Treasury Yield unchanged at 4.03%.