{"id":1028,"date":"2023-10-14T14:13:22","date_gmt":"2023-10-14T14:13:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/connectwithfund.com\/markets\/now-is-the-time-to-lock-in-10-yields\/"},"modified":"2023-10-14T14:13:23","modified_gmt":"2023-10-14T14:13:23","slug":"now-is-the-time-to-lock-in-10-yields","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/connectwithfund.com\/?p=1028","title":{"rendered":"Now Is The Time To \u2018Lock In\u2019 10%+ Yields"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Today, <em>more than 18 months<\/em> after the press started ringing the recession alarm, they\u2019re still at it! And we contrarian income seekers are <em>still<\/em> happy to take the other side of that argument.<\/p>\n<p>After all, this overdone fear mongering has handed us an opportunity to \u201clock in\u201d bigger dividend yields than we\u2019ve been able to grab in years. Our buy window is still open\u2014at least for now.<\/p>\n<p>Even the banks are spreading fear these days. Like Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale, which recently warned that even a \u201chint\u201d of a recession could cause a 1987-style crash in stocks. DC-focused sources are taking up the story, too, with Politico plaintively writing: \u201cIf the bond markets aren\u2019t scaring you yet, they should be.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But we contrarian income investors <em>aren\u2019t<\/em> scared. Instead, we\u2019re coolly going where the facts take us. And the data continues to tell us we should be <em>buying<\/em>, not selling<em>.<\/em> Our preferred play? Stock-focused closed-end funds (CEFs), as many of these income plays are paying Treasury-doubling 10% yields now.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s look at what that data is saying today, then we\u2019ll talk strategy.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Consumer Spending Holds Up, Setting Up Stock (and CEF) Gains<\/h2>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p>At their core, economies are about people, and when people are spending, economies are good.<\/p>\n<p>The above chart shows personal consumption expenditures, which the Commerce Department calls \u201cthe primary measure of consumer spending on goods and services in the US economy.\u201d It\u2019s a broad measure of how much Americans are spending on a variety of goods and services. It\u2019s up 5.8% from a year ago, although inflation is higher than the long-term average, at 3.7%.<\/p>\n<p>This means Americans aren\u2019t just spending more because of inflation; they\u2019re spending more because they have more money to spend <em>and<\/em> they\u2019re confident in the economy. This, again, is reflected in our low unemployment rate (3.8%, an almost unthinkable number for the last decade) and constantly growing incomes.<\/p>\n<p>When job openings start to fall, unemployment claims surge or we start to see a significant rise in corporate-debt defaults, we can move to a more cautious stance\u2014but there\u2019s no sign of any of those yet. Until then, going to cash or seeking refuge in US Treasuries won\u2019t work\u2014ask anyone who\u2019s invested in the <strong>iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), <\/strong>the benchmark for long-term Treasuries, lately.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Americans Are Getting Used to \u201cHigher for Longer\u201d Interest Rates<\/h2>\n<p>Recently, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said banks, businesses and households are fine with higher interest rates. \u201cI haven\u2019t seen any evidence of dysfunction in connection with the increase in interest rates,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019re a small business owner or are in the market for a house, you will scoff at this. How can she say we\u2019re \u201cfine\u201d with 8% mortgages when you could have locked in a rate in the 2% range <em>for three full decades<\/em> just two years ago?<\/p>\n<p>But, as insensitive as her words are, she\u2019s not really wrong at a macro scale.<\/p>\n<p>Total bankruptcies have fallen 4.9% in 2023, according to the Administrative Offices of the US Courts, and the total amount Americans have to set aside to pay down debt hasn\u2019t gone to absurd levels, historically speaking, although it is a bit higher than the low-rate 2010s, when credit was cheap.<\/p>\n<p>None of this data suggests there will be blood in the streets. Instead, it hints at the soft landing the Fed has been working toward and, at least so far in 2023, we\u2019ve been experiencing.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">What Do We Do Now?<\/h2>\n<p>With the economy humming along and the main stock exchanges taking a bit of a breather, the greatest value right now lies in US stocks.<\/p>\n<p>And we\u2019re going to skip the S&amp;P 500 index funds the BlackRocks and Vanguards of the world are peddling and go straight where the big dividends are: equity CEFs, whose payouts have jumped, thanks to the pullback we\u2019ve seen in the last couple of months.<\/p>\n<p>Consider, for example, the <strong>Liberty All Star Equity Fund (USA), <\/strong>whose top holdings include S&amp;P 500 mainstays like <strong>Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Visa (V) <\/strong>and <strong>Microsoft (MSFT).<\/strong> This one yields 10.4% now, and it checks the past-performance box, too, delivering a 184% return in the last decade, with almost all of that in dividend cash.<\/p>\n<p>Those are two reasons why USA is attractive, but here\u2019s why it has even more potential.<\/p>\n<p>With USA\u2019s normal small premium turning into a discount, there\u2019s a buy window open here, but since things are moving fast, that opportunity is closing, as you can see on the right side of the above chart. But our chance to get this 10.4%-yielding large cap stock fund at a discount is still available, because the fear mongering discussed above has kept plenty of folks on the sidelines for too long.<\/p>\n<p>But that\u2019s starting to change, and when folks really start to swing back in, it will change quickly, making now the time to make a move.<\/p>\n<p><em>Michael Foster is the Lead Research Analyst for <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/contrarianoutlook.com\/forbessigmf?source=DIVGRWFSIGMF=&amp;utm_source=forbes&amp;utm_medium=cpc&amp;utm_campaign=signature\">Contrarian Outlook<\/em><em>. For more great income ideas, click here for our latest report \u201c<\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/contrarianoutlook.com\/free-cef-report-offers\/forbessig?source=CEFRPTSIGCOREG=&amp;utm_source=forbes&amp;utm_medium=cpc&amp;utm_campaign=signature_coreg\">Indestructible Income: 5 Bargain Funds with Steady 10.2% Dividends.<\/em><em>\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Disclosure: none<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/michaelfoster\/2023\/10\/14\/now-is-the-time-to-lock-in-10-yields\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today, more than 18 months after the press started ringing the recession alarm, they\u2019re still at it! And we contrarian income seekers are still happy to take the other side of that argument. After all, this overdone fear mongering has handed us an opportunity to \u201clock in\u201d bigger dividend yields than we\u2019ve been able to grab in years. Our buy window is still open\u2014at least for now. Even the banks are spreading fear these days. Like Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale, which recently warned that even a \u201chint\u201d of a recession could cause a 1987-style crash in stocks. DC-focused sources are taking up<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1029,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[39],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1028","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Now Is The Time To \u2018Lock In\u2019 10%+ Yields | ConnectWithFund<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Today, more than 18 months after the press started ringing the recession alarm, they\u2019re still at it! 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